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Mathematical statistics of goals - Football. France. Ligue 1

Graphs of sample (in blue) and basic random variables (probability density)


Quantity of matches (sample size) : 2828, period of time : 09-21-2016 - 06-02-2024


Match total

Average per match E = 2.69, variance V = 2.65, SD = 1.63, E/V = 1.02, Min = 0, Max = 9
P1 = 43.3%, draw = 26.0%, P2 = 30.8%, total 0 = 7.2%, over 2.5 = 51.4%, under 2.5 = 48.6%
Basic random variable ~ Poisson distribution: Pois(E)

France. Ligue 1: Poisson and Total PDF
France. Ligue 1: Poisson and Total CDF

Home team goals

Average per match E = 1.50, variance V = 1.65, SD = 1.28, E/V = 0.91, Min = 0, Max = 9
Basic random variable ~ Poisson distribution: Pois(E) and authentic random variable ~ Severyn distribition: Sever(E, V) •••

France. Ligue 1: Poisson and Severyn distributions and Goals 1 PDF

Away team goals

Average per match E = 1.20, variance V = 1.28, SD = 1.13, E/V = 0.94, Min = 0, Max = 7
Basic random variable ~ Poisson distribution: Pois(E) and authentic random variable ~ Severyn distribition: Sever(E, V) •••

France. Ligue 1: Poisson and Severyn distributions and Goals 2 PDF

Goals difference

Average per match E = 0.30, variance V = 3.20, SD = 1.79, E/V = 0.09, Min = -7, Max = 9
Basic random variable ~ Skellam distribution: Pois(E1)-Pois(E2)

France. Ligue 1: Gaus (Normal) and Difference PDF
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Friday
09-25-2026
04:58:57 UTC