Mathematical statistics of goals - Football

Graphs of sample (in blue) and basic random variables (probability density)

Quantity of matches (sample size) : 76319, period of time : 08-26-2021 - 07-17-2024

Match total

Average per match E = 2.65, variance V = 2.81, SD = 1.68, E/V = 0.94, Min = 0, Max = 14
P1 = 44.0%, draw = 25.9%, P2 = 30.1%, total 0 = 7.9%, over 2.5 = 49.3%, under 2.5 = 50.7%
Basic random variable ~ Poisson distribution: Pois(E)

Home team goals

Average per match E = 1.48, variance V = 1.66, SD = 1.29, E/V = 0.89, Min = 0, Max = 12
Basic random variable ~ Poisson distribution: Pois(E) and authentic random variable ~ Severyn distribition: Sever(E, V) •••

Away team goals

Average per match E = 1.17, variance V = 1.33, SD = 1.15, E/V = 0.88, Min = 0, Max = 10
Basic random variable ~ Poisson distribution: Pois(E) and authentic random variable ~ Severyn distribition: Sever(E, V) •••

Goals difference

Average per match E = 0.30, variance V = 3.18, SD = 1.78, E/V = 0.10, Min = -10, Max = 12
Basic random variable ~ Skellam distribution: Pois(E1)-Pois(E2)