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Mathematical statistics of goals - Football. CONCACAF. World Championship Q

Graphs of sample (in blue) and basic random variables (probability density)


Quantity of matches (sample size) : 290, period of time : 09-06-2009 - 03-31-2022


Match total

Average per match E = 2.80, variance V = 4.26, SD = 2.06, E/V = 0.66, Min = 0, Max = 13
P1 = 49.3%, draw = 23.1%, P2 = 27.6%, total 0 = 8.6%, over 2.5 = 49.3%, under 2.5 = 50.7%
Basic random variable ~ Poisson distribution: Pois(E)

CONCACAF. World Championship. Qualification: Poisson and Total PDF
CONCACAF. World Championship. Qualification: Poisson and Total CDF

Home team goals

Average per match E = 1.62, variance V = 2.67, SD = 1.63, E/V = 0.61, Min = 0, Max = 10
Basic random variable ~ Poisson distribution: Pois(E) and authentic random variable ~ Severyn distribition: Sever(E, V) •••

CONCACAF. World Championship. Qualification: Poisson and Severyn distributions and Goals 1 PDF

Away team goals

Average per match E = 1.18, variance V = 3.02, SD = 1.74, E/V = 0.39, Min = 0, Max = 13
Basic random variable ~ Poisson distribution: Pois(E) and authentic random variable ~ Severyn distribition: Sever(E, V) •••

CONCACAF. World Championship. Qualification: Poisson and Severyn distributions and Goals 2 PDF

Goals difference

Average per match E = 0.45, variance V = 7.12, SD = 2.67, E/V = 0.06, Min = -13, Max = 10
Basic random variable ~ Skellam distribution: Pois(E1)-Pois(E2)

CONCACAF. World Championship. Qualification: Gaus (Normal) and Difference PDF
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Friday
12-27-2024
00:11:19 UTC